Gary North's REALITY CHECK
Issue 307 January 6, 2004
( Read more... ) The reason why you may be facing accelerating labor competition is because of decisions made by Chinese and Indian couples two or three decades ago. Then, without warning, there was a political transformation at the top in each nation. In 1979, Deng Xiao-ping scrapped much of Mao's Marxism. In 1991-93, India scrapped much of Nehru's Fabianism. It's not clear yet whether India or China will become the dominant producer of goods and services for the world in 2050, but it is clear that neither of them could have gotten into the race had the old bureaucratic systems prevailed over capitalism.
My guess: China will provide more of the goods; India will provide more of the services. In a phrase: "Chinese computers will run free Linux software, and Indian technicians will show the rest of us how to make the two work together, if we do exactly what their manual says, from which they never deviate."
If a job can be done on a computer, it can be done in India by someone who speaks English. Millions do. If it can be done there, it will be done there, either by your company or the company that takes over your company. Out-sourcing now means off-shoring. If you can't live on $400 a month, you're in jeopardy.
( Read more... )[
arisbe comments:] As I often say, my employers aren't outsourcing. Can they help it if the clearing house they bought just happens to own a software factory in Madras?
In a way this is very good for those of us who write the business requirements and functional specifications for software projects. It was easier to forget about these when the guy from the business unit who needs something and the programmer who can give it to him work in the same building.
Also, as a forty hour a week part-timer, I have been off the layoff radar.
But everybody else is on edge. My supervisor nearly took it as a disloyal act when I attended the Christmas party. She wanted senior management to get the message that we are not one happy family any more. If we ever were.
Interesting times.